Driven by population decline and the spread of private cars, local railways nationwide are at a crossroads regarding their survival. With passenger numbers not showing signs of stopping their slide, railway companies are urging that maintaining unprofitable lines is becoming unsustainable. Meanwhile, for high school students commuting to school and the elderly, trains are an irreplaceable “local foot.” Last year, the government established a framework for discussions on whether to continue or discontinue services, but many municipalities have not yet reached a decision. The way public transportation should look in an era of shrinking population is being scrutinized across the country.
Sections with “1,000 people per kilometer per day”
According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, JR line segments with a transportation density (average daily users per kilometer) of less than 1,000 exceed 60 nationwide. Some sections have only a few dozen people per day per kilometer. When JNR was privatized in 1987, the guideline for closure or bus conversion was a density of fewer than 4,000, but many sections still fall well below that level.
The background is rapid population decline and aging in the countryside. The number of high school students—the once-major users along the rail line—continues to decrease, and revenue from commuter passes has thinned. In addition, with road network improvements and private car proliferation, everyday movement has become car-centric. A local railway official admitted, “Even on snowy days we operate with a commitment to transport the elderly, but there are days when only a few passengers ride a single train.”
Railway companies say “independent maintenance is at its limit”
Chronic deficits are weighing on railway company management. The Covid-19 pandemic sharply reduced non-commuter use, further tightening the operating environment. Aging facilities also pose a serious problem; updating bridges, tunnels, and rails requires large sums. Some lines damaged by heavy rain or earthquakes may be abandoned due to estimated restoration costs reaching tens of billions of yen.
In recent years, major railway companies have begun publicly releasing the finances for each unprofitable segment. “A model where the entire line is in the black to support the red local lines is no longer sustainable” is the underlying sense of crisis. An executive said, “Protecting the railway as a means should not be an end in itself. We have reached a stage where we must think with the communities what transportation is truly needed.”
The government builds a framework for discussion
In response, the government has established a council system for municipalities and railway companies to discuss the future of lines. For segments with low transportation density, the government will take a proactive role in whether to continue as rail or convert to Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) or bus services. The government has indicated it will provide financial support in either case of continuation or conversion.
However, even when discussions begin, reaching a conclusion is not easy. The gap over how costs should be shared between communities seeking rail survival and railway companies saying independent maintenance is difficult is wide. For lines spanning multiple prefectures, differences in stance among prefectures make coordination even harder. “Being on the discussion table itself is perceived by the region as a declaration of life or death for the line,” said one mayor.
“If the schools can’t commute”, concerns along the line
Residents along the lines feel the impact most acutely, especially high school students who cannot drive and the elderly. “If the railway disappears, we won’t be able to commute to the neighboring town’s high school,” said a female high school student who commutes by local line every morning. Even if the service is converted to buses, the number of trips and schedule may not align with school commuting. In rural areas, a shortage of taxi drivers is becoming a more serious issue.
There are also concerns about regional economies. Stations are not just places to board and alight; they have become town centers, gateways that attract tourists, and the loss of a line could weaken regional cohesion. “The fact that trains run is itself a source of town pride and an attractiveness for young people moving into the area,” said a man involved in local town development along the line.
From “protect” to “rebuild”
Experts say a binary choice is insufficient; instead, initiatives that redraw mobility using new technologies and services are needed. On-demand transportation that changes routes based on demand, autonomous buses, freight–passenger mixed operations, and other approaches are being tried. Some lines have survived with the semi-vertical separation model where a municipality owns the tracks and facilities while a railway company operates the services.
“What matters is not protecting the railway as a means, but preserving a situation where residents can move about with confidence,” said a transport policy researcher. With limited funding and human resources, which regions will sustain what kinds of transportation, and who will support them, remains an open question. The discussion on regional transportation in a declining population era will continue across Japan.
(Sakura News)