Facing waves of population decline and the spread of private cars, nationwide local railways are at a crossroads over survival. Ridership declines show no sign of abating, and railway companies warn that they cannot maintain unprofitable lines. Meanwhile, for high school students commuting to school and the elderly, trains remain indispensable 'region's feet.' The government established a framework for discussions on preservation or abolition last year, but many municipalities have not been able to reach a conclusion. The question of how public transportation should operate in the era of population decline is being asked across the country now.
“One rider per day per kilometer” sections exist
According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, JR line sections with a transport density (daily average users per kilometer) of fewer than 1,000 are more than 60 nationwide. Some have densities remaining in the double digits, and there are many sections where per kilometer per day there are only several dozen riders. At the time of JNR's privatization in 1987, sections with a transport density of fewer than 4,000 were an indicator for abolition or bus conversion, but those levels are well below that standard and remain across the country.
What underpins this is rapid population decline and aging in rural areas. The number of high school students, once the main riders along the lines, has been decreasing year by year, and revenue from commuting passes has dwindled. In addition, with road networks improving and private cars spreading, daily mobility has become car-centered. A local railway official said, 'Even on snowy days we run with a sense of duty to carry the elderly, but there are days when only a few passengers ride one train.'
Railway companies say 'Sustaining on its own is at the limit'
Long-standing deficits are weighing on railway company management. The COVID-19 pandemic greatly reduced usage outside of season passes, and the business environment has become even tougher. Aging facilities are grave; upgrading bridges, tunnels, and rails requires large expenditures. Among routes damaged by heavy rain or earthquakes, some restoration costs are estimated to run into tens of billions of yen, leading to cases where restoration is not feasible.
Major railway companies have in recent years begun to disclose the finances for each unprofitable section. The sense of crisis that 'the idea of supporting unprofitable local lines with profits from the whole line is no longer sustainable' is behind this. One executive said, 'Protecting the railway as a means should not become an end in itself. We are at a stage where we must think with the line's communities about what transportation is truly needed for the region.'
Government sets up framework for discussions
In response, the government created a council system for municipalities and railway companies to discuss the lines’ future. For low-density sections, the government will engage proactively and discuss whether to keep them as railways or convert to Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) or route buses. The government has indicated it will provide financial support in either case, continuation or conversion.
However, even as discussions begin, drawing a conclusion is not easy. The gap over cost-sharing remains wide between municipalities seeking preservation and railway companies saying that standalone maintenance is not feasible. For routes spanning multiple prefectures, differences in stance among prefectures make coordination even more difficult. 'The mere act of entering the discussion table is, for the region, perceived as a declaration of the line’s survival or demise,' said one local leader.
“If the schools can’t attend, along the line worries”
Residents along the line feel the issue acutely. The impact is especially severe on high school students who cannot drive and on the elderly. 'If the railway disappears, I won’t be able to attend the high school in the neighboring town,' says a female high school student who commutes by local line every morning. Even if service is converted to buses, the number of buses and the schedule may not fit school commuting. In rural areas, a shortage of taxi drivers is also growing more serious.
There are concerns about the regional economy as well. The station has long been more than just a place to board and alight; it serves as the town’s center. It is an entry point that attracts tourists, and the closure could weaken the region’s cohesion. 'The very fact that trains are running is a source of town pride and an attraction for young people moving here,' said a man involved in town-building along the line.
From 'protect' to 'rebuild'
Experts say a way of thinking beyond a binary choice of whether to keep the railway is needed. Initiatives to revamp regional mobility by combining new technologies and services—on-demand transport that shifts routes as needed, autonomous buses, freight-and-passenger mixed operations—are starting to appear across the country. Some lines have persisted through a model of vertical separation, where local governments own the tracks and facilities and a railway company handles operations.
'What matters is not protecting the railway as a means, but protecting a state in which residents can move about safely,' said a researcher familiar with transport policy. With limited funding and personnel, which regions will retain what kind of transportation, and who will support it? There is no single answer. Debates over regional transportation in the era of population decline will continue across Japan.